MT
MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INC (MCHP)·Q1 2026 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 FY26 delivered a clean beat: revenue $1.0755B (+10.8% q/q, -13.4% y/y) vs S&P Global consensus $1.056B*, and non-GAAP EPS $0.27 vs $0.239*; non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 54.3% and operating margin to 20.7% .
- Guidance implies above-seasonal recovery continues: Q2 FY26 net sales $1.110–$1.150B (+5.1% q/q at midpoint), non-GAAP EPS $0.30–$0.36, non-GAAP gross margin 55–57%, and OpEx 32.4–32.8% of sales .
- Inventory normalization is a major lever: inventory days fell to 214 (from 251 in March and 266 in December), distributor sell-through exceeded sell-in by $49.3M (gap narrowed from $103M), inventory write-offs declined to $77.1M, and underutilization charges fell to $51.5M .
- Management signaled improving bookings (July strongest month in three years) and modest lead-time extension (select pockets moving to 6–10 and 8–12 weeks), consistent with demand normalization rather than pull-forward .
- Catalysts: above-seasonal Q2 outlook, margin trajectory from lower write-offs/underutilization, AI/defense design wins, and dividend continuity ($0.455 per share) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Broad-based sequential recovery: microcontroller and analog sales both up double digits; net sales up 10.8% q/q and above the high end of updated guidance .
- Margin leverage: incremental non-GAAP gross margin 76% and operating margin 82%, with product gross margin at 66.3% after adding back $77.1M write-offs and $51.5M underutilization .
- Bookings/backlog momentum: “July bookings were the largest for any month in the last three years,” and Q2 backlog started higher than Q1, supporting above-seasonal guidance .
What Went Wrong
- Still below normalized end-demand and automotive lagging: management emphasized ongoing inventory digestion and identified automotive as the most lagging end market .
- GAAP profitability remains pressured: GAAP gross margin 53.6%, GAAP net loss attributable to common shareholders $(46.4)M or $(0.09) per share, reflecting amortization and special charges .
- Lead-time and backend constraints in pockets: emerging bottlenecks in lead frames/substrates and subcontractor capacity causing select lead-time extensions to 6–10 and 8–12 weeks .
Financial Results
Trend vs prior quarters
Q1 FY26 vs S&P Global consensus
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
KPIs and operational metrics
Segment/geography highlights (directional)
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Net sales were up sequentially in all geographies. Sales from our microcontroller and analog businesses were both up in double digit percentages sequentially.” — Steve Sanghi .
- “Non GAAP gross margin was 54.3%... inventory write off $77.1M and underutilization $51.5M... indicates product gross margin 66.3%.” — Steve Sanghi .
- “Adjusted free cash flow was $244.4M in the June.” — Eric Bjornholt ; “Free cash flow $257.7M” (press release) .
- “July bookings were the largest bookings for any month in the last three years... backlog for September started higher than June.” — Steve Sanghi .
- “We expect our non GAAP diluted earnings per share [September] to be between $0.30 and $0.36.” — Steve Sanghi ; Guidance table confirms .
Q&A Highlights
- Above-seasonal trajectory: Management characterized +5.1% q/q September guide as “well above seasonal” and expects above seasonal in December/March .
- Tariff impact limited: Detailed distributor forensics suggest tariff-related pull-ins mid–high single-digit $M; no direct customers cited tariffs; significant China exposure via free-trade zones .
- Inventory/sell-in dynamics: Distributor sell-through exceeded sell-in by $49.3M, gap halved vs prior quarter ($103M); direct customers also draining inventory .
- Lead times rising in pockets: Backend/material constraints pushing select products to 6–10 and 8–12 weeks; message to customers is to extend backlog visibility, not expedite shipments .
- Utilization/write-down cadence: Write-downs to decline over multiple quarters; underutilization to decrease modestly in September and step down in December as wafer starts increase .
Estimates Context
- Q1 FY26 actuals vs consensus: Revenue $1.0755B vs $1.056B*, EPS $0.27 vs $0.239*; both beats, supporting narrative of demand normalization .
- Q2 FY26 guidance vs consensus: Guidance midpoint revenue $1.130B vs $1.133B*, non-GAAP EPS range $0.30–$0.36 vs $0.334*; at midpoint, revenue roughly in line and EPS range brackets consensus .
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
S&P Global Consensus Detail
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Recovery is real and above-seasonal: Two consecutive quarters of above-seasonal growth with Q2 guide at +5% q/q; backlog and bookings support continued normalization .
- Margin trajectory improving: Lower inventory write-offs and underutilization charges plus selective lead-time expansion indicate tightening supply; expect further non-GAAP margin expansion toward long-term 65% gross margin model over time .
- Demand normalization vs pull-forward: Tariff-related pull-ins appear modest; management emphasizes structural recovery from inventory deficits across channels/customers .
- Cash generation supports dividend and deleveraging: Post-September, adjusted FCF expected to cover dividend; excess FCF to reduce debt; near-term buybacks unlikely given 4.2x net debt/EBITDA .
- AI/defense exposure is a secular tailwind: Tier-1 AI infrastructure/design wins and defense qualifications expand high-margin mix; AI coding assistant drives customer adoption/productivity .
- Watch pockets of backend tightness: Lead frames/substrates/subcon capacity can constrain shipments; customers should extend backlog visibility (12–16 weeks) to avoid shortages .
- Tactical trading setup: Positive estimate-revision potential on margins/FCF; stock likely sensitive to confirmation of Q2 above-seasonal print, lead-time evolution, and ongoing inventory drawdown metrics .